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2009年8月31日 (月)

【マクロ経済・金融】米国経済(債券・ドル)の価値は中国の出方にかかっている

 今後の米国経済もしくは世界経済を見通す上で、極めて重要な記事を貼っておきます。
 中国国営企業が、米国の主要銀行から購入した、金融デリバティブ商品に関する「デリバティブ契約」の「デフォルト」(利払いや元本の支払いを停止すること)を行う可能性がありそうです。

 そうなれば、米国の金融機関は再び財務が悪化し、その金融機関を公的資金により、「リーマン・ショック」以降、再度救済することになるでしょう。
 そして、米国債の発行に伴うFRBの米ドル増刷(実際は帳簿上の数字)により、米国債の価値の大幅下落、米ドルの信認の大幅な低下もありうることでしょう。

 私の記憶をたどると、2009年8月か7月に、中国国営企業の幹部らが米国ワシントンDC詣でを行い、「デリバティブ契約のデフォルト」の通告をした(最後通牒を突きつけた)ことが、確かロイターの英文記事で報じられていたはずです。
(現在その記事を探している最中です。)

=====≪quote≫
■中国国有企業はデリバティブ契約の一方的破棄可能と報道、外銀間に動揺
(Thomson Reuters、2009年 08月3日)
http://jp.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idJPnTK845677220090831

[北京 31日 ロイター] 中国国有企業が外資系金融機関との商品関連デリバティブ契約の一方的な破棄を容認される可能性があるとの報道を受け、金融機関に憤慨と動揺が広がっている。

 中国誌の財経が29日、業界関係筋の話として報じたところによると、国有企業を規制する国務院国有資産監督管理委員会(SASAC)が外資系金融機関6社に対し、国有企業はデリバティブ契約のデフォルトの権利を留保している、と伝えた。SASACの広報担当官は、「関連当局」による公式コメントを待っているところだ、と述べた。

 今回の事態は、中国での一層多くのデリバティブ・ヘッジの取引を望む投資銀行に打撃となる。シンガポールにある外資系金融機関シンガポールのマーケティング担当幹部は「もし、われわれが書簡を受け取った銀行であれば、ひどく憤慨しているであろう。今、重要なのは、いかなる組織が書簡を送ったのか、いかなる理由のデフォルトなのか詳細を知ることだ」とし、「政府が発行した書簡であれば、非常にネガティブな影響をもたらすだろう」と語った。

 JPモルガン・チェースやモルガン・スタンレーの商品関連デリバティブ・マーケティングの関係者はコメントを拒否した。

 シンガポールの関係筋によると、少なくとも中国国際航空、中国東方航空、中国遠洋(チャイナCOSCO)の3社が銀行に書簡を送っている。これらは昨年末以降にデリバティブで巨額の損失を被った中国国有企業の一角。関係筋は、各社の書簡はすべて同一の形式と聞いている、と述べた。

 別の銀行筋は「当局により再交渉を奨励されているのは一握りの企業だ。非常識だが中国のことであり、誰もが慎重に取り扱っている」と語った。

 財経は特定の銀行に言及していない。SASACの報道官も、銀行の特定を拒否した。
=====≪unquote≫


 上記ロイター伝のオリジナルの記事(英文)は、これだと思います。貼っておきます。

=====≪quote≫
UPDATE 1-Beijing's derivative default stance rattles banks
State-owned firms may default on commodity hedges - report

Thomson Reuters, Mon Aug 31, 2009
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSP47327420090831

* Bankers dismayed, confused by report; seek more details
* Lawyers question legality of the move
* Traders suspect lurking losses may have prompted warning (Adds analysts comments)

By Eadie Chen and Chen Aizhu

BEIJING, Aug 31 (Reuters) - A report that Chinese state-owned companies will be allowed to walk away from loss-making commodity derivative trades provoked anger and dismay among investment bankers on Monday as they feared it may set a damaging precedent.

The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the regulator and nominal shareholder for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), told six foreign banks that SOEs reserved the right to default on contracts, Caijing magazine quoted an unnamed industry source as saying in an article published on Saturday.

While the details of the report could not be confirmed, it was Monday's hot topic in financial circles from Shanghai to Singapore as commodity marketers feared that companies holding underwater price hedges could simply renege on the deals, costing banks millions of dollars in profit.

The warning from SASAC follows a series of measures from Beijing this year to crack down on the sale of derivative products by foreign banks to Chinese enterprises, principally big consumers, who bought protection against higher prices last year only to watch the market collapse -- leaving them with losses.

While many companies including top airlines have come clean on the losses, some analysts fear another wave may follow.

"I wouldn't be surprised if more state firms emerge with big derivatives trading losses, otherwise SASAC wouldn't come out with such a radical move," said a Hong Kong-based derivatives analyst, who like most other industry officials and bankers declined to be named due to the high sensitivity of the issue.

A SASAC media official said on Monday that he was waiting for the "relevant department's" official comment before he can clarify to media. A government official said that the Bureau of Financial Supervision and Evaluation under SASAC was handling the issue. The official declined to be named and did not elaborate.

Spokespersons at Goldman Sachs and UBS declined comment, and media officials at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan were not immediately available for comment. All are major global providers of commodity risk management.

No bank were named in the Caijing report. The SASAC media officer also declined to identify any specific banks.

"It's a handful of companies who are being encouraged by regulators to re-negotiate," said a second banking source. "It's outrageous, but it's China, so everyone is treading very carefully."

DAMAGING PRECEDENT

For banks that are hoping to sell more derivatives hedges in China, the world's fastest-expanding major economy and top commodities consumer, the danger goes beyond the immediate risk to existing contracts to the longer-term precedent that suggests Chinese companies can simply renege on deals when they like.

The report follows an order from SASAC in July that required all central government-controlled state companies engaged in trading derivatives to make quarterly reports about their investments, including details of holdings and performance.

But the reported letter opened several important questions that could not immediately be answered.

"If we were among the banks receiving that letter, we would be very angry. But now the key is to find out more details on the letter: In whose name the letter was issued, the government or the corporate's? And under what was the reason for defaulting?" said a Singapore-based marketing executive with a foreign bank.

The source, whose bank did not receive a letter, said that Air China, China Eastern and shipping giant COSCO -- among the Chinese companies that have reported huge derivatives losses since last year -- had issued almost identical notices to banks.

"If it's in the name of the government, the impact will be very negative," said the source, who declined to be named.

Beijing-based derivatives lawyers said the so-called "legal letter" has no legal standing -- SASAC as a shareholder has no business relationship with international banks.

"It's like the father suddenly told the creditors of his debt-ridden son that his son won't pay any of his debt," said a lawyer from the derivatives risks committee of the Beijing Lawyers Association.

It's also unclear why Chinese state firms, which have complained that their foreign banks sometimes did not disclose full information of potential risks when selling them complicated products, did not seek redress through the courts.

"If that is the case, these firms should seek through legal measures to safeguard their rights, instead of turning to the authorities for political interference," said a different lawyer.

SASAC took over the job of overseeing SOEs' derivatives trading from the securities regulator in February after several Chinese firms reported huge losses from derivatives.

For a factbox of China's derivatives debacles:[ID:nPEK206094] (Reporting by Eadie Chen and Chen Aizhu in Beijing, Alfred Cang in Shanghai, George Chen and Michael Flaherty in Hong Kong; Editing by Jonathan Leff)
=====≪unquote≫


 上記記事の少し前(2008年8月9日)の時点では、次のような報道がありました。
 「Air China, Shanghai Airlines and China Eastern」は「$1.94 billion」(約2,000億円)の損失を出している模様。


=====≪quote≫
■UPDATE 1-Beijing's derivative default stance rattles banks
Thomson Reuters, July 8, 2009
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSPEK4146720090708

BEIJING, July 8 (Reuters) - China's state assets watchdog warned centrally-controlled state companies on Wednesday to step up checks over their derivatives trading to avoid potential risks.

China

The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) ordered all central government-controlled state companies engaging in trading derivatives to make quarterly reports about their investment situations, according to a statement published on the agency's website (www.sasac.gov.cn).

It said the companies should report their holdings of futures, options, forwards and swaps, and investment performances, to the watchdog within 10 working days of the end of each quarter.

"All central state companies should strengthen oversight of derivatives trading and make a timely analysis of their holdings, capital settlements, new business, gains or losses, hedging activities and risk exposure," it said.

The circular fleshed out a guidance SASAC issued in March to bost controls over derivatives investments by state companies after a series of scandals.

Several state companies have reported huge derivatives losses since last year as the global financial crisis intensified.

Three airlines -- Air China, Shanghai Airlines and China Eastern -- reported book losses totalling 13.17 billion yuan ($1.94 billion) as of the end of January on aviation fuel hedging contracts, the official Xinhua news agency said.

(Reporting by Eadie Chen and Tom Miles; Editing by Chris Lewis) (eadie.chen@reuters.com; +8610 6627 1268; Reuters Messaging: eadie.chen.reuters.com@reuters.net))
=====≪unquote≫

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